Currently a number of developing countries are in the process of urbanization and motorization. This paper explores the general pattern of mobility development in China with elasticity regression analysis method, based on mobility development trajectories of developed countries with a stable mobility development state. A five stage developing pattern is proposed to forecast mobility development pattern without policy restrictions in China. Mobility data of 23 sample cities in China is collected and classification of cities by regions is conducted to analyze and predict more specifically. Finally this paper shows the prediction of vehicle ownership in sample cities in 2030.


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    Title :

    Analysis and Prediction of Mobility Development Patterns in China


    Contributors:
    Lu, Huapu (author) / Ma, He (author) / Kuang, Wenbo (author)

    Conference:

    15th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2015 ; Beijing, China


    Published in:

    CICTP 2015 ; 3551-3562


    Publication date :

    2015-07-13




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



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