The traffic fatalities in the U.S. had remained relatively stable between 40,716 and 43,510 from 1994 to 2005. However, according to the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), the traffic fatalities dropped dramatically from 43,510 in 2005 to 33,808 in 2009. This paper studies fatalities from social-economic perspective and uses an ARIMA model to perform a time-series analysis of fatalities from 1994 to 2009 by controlling unemployment rate, GDP, auto sales and other factors. The results indicate that ARIMA model is appropriate for the analysis and the number of auto sales is significantly related to fatality downturn. Findings from this study will enhance the understanding of traffic safety issues from a macro level and facilitate traffic safety policy design.
Investigation of Fatal Crash Downturn from 2005 to 2009 in the U.S.
The Twelfth COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2012 ; Beijing, China
CICTP 2012 ; 3633-3641
2012-07-23
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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