Models that predict hurricane evacuation demand can play a crucial role in developing and evaluating alternative evacuation policies and plans. However, to evaluate alternative policies effectively, evacuation demand models should be sensitive to time varying characteristics of a storm and the contextual conditions surrounding an evacuee. The time-dependent sequential logit is one such model, but it makes use of restrictive assumptions about the dynamic choices made by evacuees. A new model, a time-dependent nested logit model, relaxes those assumptions. It was formulated and derived in this study, and its performance was then compared with that of the time-dependent sequential logit model by applying both models to data from Hurricane Gustav. The results indicated that the time-dependent nested logit model has better predictive capability than the time-dependent sequential logit model.


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    Titel :

    Comparison of Time-Dependent Sequential Logit and Nested Logit for Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Demand


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Beteiligte:


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    01.01.2012




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




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