In order to improve the prediction of aviation unsafe events, a hybrid prediction method of aviation unsafe events based on grey catastrophe and regression analysis method is proposed. At first, the catastrophe points (date) are found from original unsafe events data to establish the grey catastrophe model for predicting the future catastrophe points, and then the grey prediction model for these catastrophe points is built to calculate the catastrophe value corresponding to future catastrophe points. For non-catastrophe points, the appropriate regression analysis model needs to be established. Example validates its effectiveness.
Hybrid Prediction Method of Aviation Unsafe Events Based on Grey Catastrophe and Regression Analysis
Advanced Materials Research ; 739 ; 759-763
2013-08-30
5 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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