Market penetration models are presented, illustrating that direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could eventually provide industry with substantial return on investment without government subsidy, while at the same time significantly reducing environmental degradation and oil imports. This market penetration model estimates the likely number of fuel cell vehicles that might be sold in the United States over the next three decades, based on the projected costs of these vehicles and the cost of hydrogen compared to other clean vehicles that might compete for the California zero emission vehicle market. Initial results are shown comparing the market penetration, societal benefit/cost ratios and return on investment estimates for direct hydrogen fuel cell vehicles compared to fuel cell vehicles with onboard fuel processors including methanol steam reformers and gasoline partial oxidation systems. Small scale electrolyzers and small scale natural gas steam reformers could provide economic hydrogen, as the existing gas pipeline system and electrical grid provide the backbone to start an infrastructure for hydrogen. Both automotive industry and hydrogen gas industry could make over 20 % return on investment if the US government invested over 400 million dollars between now and 2008. Electrolyzers, however, have some economic and environmental disadvantages compared to steam methane reformers. They are essential in the startup phase, but on the long run, they are acceptable with renewable electricity only (solar and wind energy, for example).


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    Titel :

    Market penetration scenarios for fuel cell vehicles


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    Marktdurchdringungsszenarios für Brennstoffzellenfahrzeuge


    Beteiligte:
    Thomas, C.E. (Autor:in) / James, B.D. (Autor:in) / Lomax, F.D. jun. (Autor:in)

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    1998


    Format / Umfang :

    18 Seiten, 13 Bilder, 10 Tabellen, 13 Quellen




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Print


    Sprache :

    Englisch




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