One major issue arising out of early investigations of the National Transport Policy Study of South Africa focussed on the freight transport market and the need to measure impacts of potential transport policy changes in this market. In response to this need, a theoretically sound policy sensitive methodology was developed, capable of quantitatively evaluating the impacts of proposed policy changes. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development of this methodology as part of the transportation planning process. The fuel sequence of modelling up through prediction is illustrated: compilation of an extensive data base, estimation of a multinominal logic model of freight transport demand, the development of a forecasting package and prediction. It is shown that the forecasting package can be used to quantitatively measure the impacts of policy options. Using this methodology, final policy decisions can be made in a more rational way by better informed decision-makers. The methodology is currently being applied in South Africa.
A disaggregate model of intercity freight transport demand
Ein disaggregiertes Modell der zwischenstaedtischen Frachttransportanforderungen
1987
7 Seiten, 2 Bilder, 7 Tabellen, 8 Quellen
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Englisch
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