Modeling offshore energy risk presents a special set of design challenges. Actuarial techniques cannot be applied due to the relative infrequency of events and scarcity of historical loss data. Each hurricane is unique, and the response of platforms, pipelines, and rigs in the path of each storm is alos unique. To model the low frequency-high severity risk associated with catastrophic events, it is necessary to develop physical models of the event and the manner in which the event creates vulnerability and interacts with infrastructure. The purpose of this two-part article is to review the goals of catastrophic event modeling and its application to the offshore energy industry and to quantify the expected losses to property damage in the Gulf of Mexico based on historical storms events. Probabilistic scenarios for storm simulations are applied to quantify exceedance probability curves, average annual losses, and expected losses. In Part 1, the evolution of offshore energy insurance markets and the conceptual stages of model development are reviewed. In Part 2, the losses to property damage for historic wether events are quantified.
Catastrophic event modeling - 1. How coverage has evolved for offshore storm risks
Oil and Gas Journal ; 105 , 45 ; 36-44
2007
6 Seiten, 5 Bilder, 1 Tabelle, 10 Quellen
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Englisch
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