A MBES ( Mine Burial Expert System) was jointly developed by The Johns Hopkins University and the US Naval Research Laboratory to provide probabilistic estimates of mine burial using a network of physics-based models, observational data, and heuristic inputs from experts. The MBES generates a probability distribution appropriate for making tactical decisions, which results from the natural variability in mine deployments and in local environment. The expert system provides an integrated tactic for organizing state-of-the-art knowledge into an operational prediction system that propagates environmental and model uncertainties so that the burial predictions fully account for stochastic nature of the problem. A burial prediction in the form of a probability distribution would accurately present an assessment of the real-world uncertainty to the mine hunter. The MBES predictions for wave-driven scour burial reflect the sensitivity to water depth and the varying responses to areas of different sediment grain size.
Prediction of mine burial by a probabilistic expert system
Vorhersage von Minenaltlasten durch ein Expertensystem mit Wahrscheinlichkeitscharakter
Sea Technology ; 47 , 11 ; 21-24
2006
4 Seiten
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Englisch
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