The predicted years for realization of various automotive technologies can be summarized as follows based on the questionnaires to automobile experts. So-called 2-litre cars with a fuel economy of 50 km/L will be generally available in 2015 mainly powered by a hybrid system, but those with a fuel M. Hori et al.! JSAE Review 25 (2004) 3-8 cell system will be available after 2020. Ultra-high performance and large capacity secondary batteries will be commercially available around 2011. The key words for achieving a 90% reduction in exhaust emissions compared with those in 2000 are advanced catalytic systems, clean fuels and clean combustion. Many epoch-making emissions control systems will be introduced in 2010 to 2015; HC absorption catalysts and direct NOx decomposition technology will become usable around 2010, and catalysts that function normally under ambient temperatures around 2015. A 3 dB(A) reduction of the environmental noise level from the current level will be obtained around 2012, but control of noise emissions from a vehicle itself will be realized earlier in passenger cars and around 2016 for heavy-duty vehicles. A 6 dB(A) reduction by low noise pavement and 3 dB(A) reduction by noise insulating walls are not easy, and their achievement will be after 2015. Establishment of parts re-use technologies enabling re-use of more than 97% of parts will be in 2006 to 2010. Re-building of a social system is necessary for raising the actual recycling efficiency of end-of-life-vehicles. Development of a system that can perceive and judge the surrounding conditions of a vehicle will be available later than other element technologies. Commercial availability and general availability will be around 2019 and 2025, respectively. In order to cut traffic accidents by 50%, traffic accident prediction technologies need to be developed and leveling up of predictions regarding bodily movements and degrees of injuries of occupants at the time of an accident is also important. Most of the current new technologies will be widely available by 2010, because of the high speed of research and development activities in this field. New communication technologies will continue to appear, and even after 2015, technology development will continue to advance from new standpoints or toward new targets.
Prospects of automotive technologies toward the first quarter of the 21st century
Ausblicke auf Kraftfahrzeug-Technologien für das erste Viertel des 21. Jahrhunderts
JSAE Review ; 25 , 1 ; 3-8
2004
6 Seiten, 6 Bilder
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Englisch
Making Efforts in Development Toward Automotive Engines of 21st Century
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