Models based on catastrophe theory are used to illustrate the impact of command and control capabilities, firepower, and force strength on military force survivability. The validity of this approach has been established by the use of sophisticated new statistical procedures to analyze the output from elaborate simulation models of the combat environment. A framework based on catastrophe theory that can generate all the commonly used Lanchester-type of combat attrition equations (such as modern warfare, ancient combat, and area fire) as well as equations representing new types of combat process (such as smart weapons fire) has also been developed. Models of military behavior motivated by models of population dynamics described in the paper assume that individual mobilization is responsible for military unit growth, that the support provided by a societal infrastructure can influence this growth, and that competition between opposing forces can lead to the annihilation or coexistence of these forces. An analysis outlined in the paper provides a new insight into the nature and impact of force multipliers. Other models describe how a linear change in the value of a variable identified as the Supply Capability of a system can result in the emergence of limit cycle oscillations through the process of Hopf bifurcation. Under particular conditions even simple mathematical models can exhibit chaotic behavior. Chaos can represent the degree of uncertainty in the planning process and the emergence of chaotic behavior in a military system can reflect conditions where the controls acting on a system become ineffective. Models of such behavior under development by Woodcock and Dockery are aimed at providing new insights into the causes and effects of such conditions.
Catastrophes, chaos, and CCCI
Untersuchung und Simulation von und mit 'Command-Control-Communication-Information'-Systemen
IEE second int. conf. on command, control, communications and management information systems, GB ; 31-37
1987
7 Seiten, 5 Bilder, 42 Quellen
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Englisch
[Abschnitt 4 (Conclusum CCCI – Conclusum CCCC)]
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