Both stochastic and deterministic models can be used to describe the day-to-day evolution of traffic flow across a network, and applied for a raft of transport planning and control purposes. We might hope that these two types of models would give qualitatively similar results, so that forecasts based on either type of model will lead to broadly similar conclusions. This will be the case when the mean of the stochastic model behaves in a similar fashion to the deterministic model. In this paper we explore this issue in detail, using examples involving some simple networks. We find that for systems with multiple deterministic equilibria, stochastic and deterministic models can appear comparable for extended periods and yet have very different long-term properties. We conclude that care is required when handling deterministic and stochastic day-to-day models if we are to avoid comparing apples with oranges, as the saying goes.
Apples versus oranges? Comparing deterministic and stochastic day-to-day traffic assignment models
Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics ; 7 , 1 ; 1426-1443
2019-12-23
18 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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