Accurate prediction of arrival time of buses is still a challenging problem in dynamically varying traffic conditions especially under Indian traffic conditions. The present study proposes two predictive modelling methodologies using the concepts of time series analysis, namely (a) classical seasonal AR model with possible integrating non-stationary effects and (b) linear non-stationary AR approach, a novel technique exploiting the notion of partial correlation for learning from data to predict arrival time of buses efficiently. Reported existing studies did not explore the distribution of travel time data and its effects on modelling. The present study conducted a detailed analysis of the marginal distributions of the data and incorporated it into the predictive models. A multi-section ahead travel time prediction algorithm is also proposed to facilitate real time implementation. From the results, it was found that the proposed method is able to perform better than many of the existing approaches.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Bus travel time prediction: a log-normal auto-regressive (AR) modelling approach


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    01.01.2020


    Format / Umfang :

    33 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Unbekannt




    Weather-Weighted Periodic Auto Regressive Models for Sector Demand Prediction

    Chen, N. / Sridhar, B. / American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2009


    Aeroengine gas trajectory prediction using time-series analysis auto regressive integrated moving average

    Mary Victoria Florence, M. / Priyadarshini, E. | Emerald Group Publishing | 2024


    Comparison of alternative approaches to auto-regressive modelling of dynamic systems

    Markert, Heiner / Schiepe, Christian / Streichert, Felix et al. | Tema Archiv | 2011



    Auto-Regressive Model with Exogenous Input (ARX) Based Traffic Flow Prediction

    Ying, Jun / Dong, Xin / Li, Bowei et al. | ASCE | 2021