Terrorists and catastrophic accidents have focused public attention on risks to aircraft and the flying public. We fear the possibility of a normal flight suddenly turning into a fiery nightmare.

    Recently, as part of the Space Safety community's growing interest in re-entry safety, the IAASS created an initiative to be able to assess and manage the risks to aircraft from re-entering space debris. The Chelyabinsk meteor explosion over Russia and the resulting extensive damage provided an impetus to extend the scope of the study to re-entering meteoroids. Subsequent investigations have shown that significant meteoroid entries occur more frequently than previously thought.

    Annual cumulative meteorite flux [16]

    With any hazardous condition, the first approach is always containment, separation of the threat from people and assets that may be threatened. The feasibility of containment depends on the geographical and temporal extent of the threat. When these regions are large, the cost of containment must be balanced against the residual risk. The size of the regions to be protected must address the geo-temporal volume to be protected, the uncertainty in its location, and the time to isolate the region from the threat. Moreover, closure of large volumes of airspace is costly.

    Quantification of risks supports the decision making process. It provides a basis for determining the value of imposing restrictions on aircraft flight when a re-entry event has been identified. It provides a basis for tradeoffs of greater restrictions versus the economic impact and the cost of greater congestion. It allows the risk to aircraft from re-entering space debris to be compared with the background risk of other types of aircraft accidents. Finally, it allows the risks generated by the re-entering space debris and meteoroids to various classes of people -- aircraft passengers, ships and persons on land -- to be compared to assess where resources should be placed.

    This paper addresses the initial steps to quantify these risks. This paper is one of several characterizing the IAASS ADMIRE initiative.


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    Titel :

    Admire: Assessing the Risk


    Beteiligte:
    Sgobba, Tommaso (Herausgeber:in) / Rongier, Isabelle (Herausgeber:in) / Haber, Jerold M. (Autor:in) / Nyman, Randy (Autor:in)

    Erschienen in:

    Space Safety is No Accident ; Kapitel : 56 ; 485-491


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2015-01-01


    Format / Umfang :

    7 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz/Kapitel (Buch)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




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