Abstract This paper aims to provide a practical method for forecasting potential container cargo volume that can be induced by a port development project on a container transport network by combining port choice and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The entrance channel improvement plan for Incheon New Port in South Korea is used as a case study. Based on the stated preference data collected from domestic shippers, a discrete choice analysis is performed to estimate the future market share of three major ports in South Korea: Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. The estimated market share of Incheon New Port is used to forecast its future container volume derived by the ARIMA model and the potential port development scenarios.


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    Titel :

    Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging


    Beteiligte:
    Lee, Sang-Yoon (Autor:in) / Lim, Hyunwoo (Autor:in) / Kim, Hwa-Joong (Autor:in)

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    04.01.2017


    Format / Umfang :

    19 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




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