An evolved version of the Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (TIES) method is presented that provides techniques for quantifying technological uncertainty associated with immature technologies. Uncertainty in this context implies forecasting. Forecasting the impact of immature technologies on a system is needed to provide increased knowledge to a decision-maker in the conceptual and preliminary phases of aircraft design. The increased knowledge allows for proper allocation of company resources and program management. The TIES method addresses the milestones encountered during a technology development program, the sources of uncertainty during that development, a potential method for bounding and forecasting the uncertainty, and a means to quantify the impact of any emerging technology. A proof of concept application was performed on a High Speed Civil Transport concept due to its technically challenging customer requirements.
Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design
Sae Technical Papers
World Aviation Congress & Exposition ; 1999
19.10.1999
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Englisch
Forecasting Technology Uncertainty in Preliminary Aircraft Design
British Library Conference Proceedings | 1999
|Forecasting aircraft movements: and unavoidable case of uncertainty
British Library Conference Proceedings | 1998
|NTIS | 1974
|NTIS | 1974
|Multidisciplinary Optimization under Uncertainty for Preliminary Aircraft Sizing
SAE Technical Papers | 2011
|