Abstract The inaccuracy of traffic forecasts has long stood as a central research theme in the field of infrastructure and transportation studies. The literature presents several motives for this phenomenon, ranging from a political bias, insufficient technical preparation, changing urban patterns, and economic dynamics. Uncertainty due to the inaccuracy of forecasts can have a profound impact on the infrastructure development process, right through from the preliminary studies up until the operation and re-negotiation of contracts (in cases when projects are developed using a concessions model). This paper provides an extensive systematic review of forecast inaccuracy in roads and railways projects (analyzing trends, causes, and results). The research found that: (1) forecasts in rail projects are generally more optimistic than in road projects; (2) over the last couple of decades the accuracy of forecasts has not improved significantly, and; (3) there has been a generalized ramp-up effect in forecasts.


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    Titel :

    Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2019




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch



    Klassifikation :

    BKL:    74.75$jVerkehrsplanung$jVerkehrspolitik / 55.80$jVerkehrswesen$jTransportwesen: Allgemeines / 55.80 Verkehrswesen, Transportwesen: Allgemeines / 74.75 Verkehrsplanung, Verkehrspolitik



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