Abstract Air drag B∗ factors from Earth satellite element sets often show the characteristic near Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation exponential decay typical of a Gauss-Markov process. Assuming the “most current” set of orbital elements are correct, earlier elements can be used to construct covariance matrices as a function of prediction time into the future. If resolved in cylindrical orbit frame coordinates, these are remarkably structured, essentially showing only in-track error growth. Often the in-track position covariance element growth follows a fourth power in time rule, and is definitely forced by the uncertainty in the air drag factor. This observation is confirmed both by perturbation theory and by modeling stochastic state covariance propagation. Realizing that almost all error growth under the SGP4 model is in track, the Cosmos 2251/Iridium 33 event is reexamined. While a collision prediction from the last elements shows a minimum miss distance of about 700 m, those same elements show a closest approach distance of the orbits of only 32 m. Given large in-track uncertainty, minimum orbit separation may be a much more reliable metric for maneuver decisions.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff über TIB

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Stochastic Dynamics of and Collision Prediction for Low Altitude Earth Satellites


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2018




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Print


    Sprache :

    Englisch



    Klassifikation :

    Lokalklassifikation TIB:    770/7040
    BKL:    55.60 Raumfahrttechnik



    Stochastic Dynamics of and Collision Prediction for Low Altitude Earth Satellites

    Rich, Adam T. / Stuart, Kenneth J. / Wiesel, William E. | Springer Verlag | 2018


    Application of altitude control techniques for low altitude earth satellites

    Nickerson, K. G. / Herder, R. W. / Glass, A. B. et al. | NTRS | 1977


    Collision Probability Analyses for Earth Orbiting Satellites

    Chan, K. / American Astronomical Society | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1997


    Collision matrix for low earth orbit satellites

    MCKNIGHT, DARREN / LORENZEN, GARY | AIAA | 1989


    Low-Altitude Repeater Satellites

    Barton Kreuzer | NTRS | 1962