A procedure for determining the probability of structural failure of an airplane at any stage of the operational life is described. This procedure is based on existing models for representing the size distribution of pile-service cracks, the distribution of the maximum service load expected in a single flight and the reliability of the nondestructive method used for inspection. A case study is presented to show how the procedure can help the fleet manager set more realistic inspection and maintenance schedules and adopt more appropriate retirement policies.


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