As traffic congestion increases, the K-factor, defined as the proportion of the 24-hour traffic volume that occurs during the peak hour, may decrease. This behavioral response is known as peak spreading: as congestion grows during the peak travel times, motorists may shift their departure time to a non-peak hour. Knowing whether K-factors will remain constant or will change will affect the estimation of travel demand, and the resultant transportation performance, since the traffic volume during a given hour may affect travel speed and vehicle emissions. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for forecasting peak spreading whereby peak spreading is measured as change in the K-factor. Data were collected from 32 continuous count stations in the six Northern Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, and Stafford for the period 1997-2010. Because some stations gave twodirectional counts and some gave only one-directional counts, there were 52 station-direction combinations, or sites, for analysis purposes. The data collected showed that the average annual K-factor adjusted for months for which data were not available decreased by an average of 0.006 (p < 0.01), from 0.103 to 0.097, during the period. The 24-hour volume-to-capacity ratio, which is a surrogate for travel congestion, increased by an average of 0.7 (p < 0.01), from 7.3 to 8.0. Both changes were statistically significant.


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    Titel :

    Model to Forecast Peak Spreading


    Beteiligte:
    J. S. Miller (Autor:in)

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2012


    Format / Umfang :

    56 pages


    Medientyp :

    Report


    Format :

    Keine Angabe


    Sprache :

    Englisch




    Congestion-Based Peak Spreading Model

    Allen Jr, William G. | Online Contents | 1996


    Congestion-Based Peak Spreading Model

    Allen, William / Schultz, ordon | Transportation Research Record | 1996


    Congestion-Based Peak Spreading Model

    Allen Jr, William G. | Online Contents | 1996


    Congestion-Based Peak Spreading Model

    Allen, William G. / Schultz, Gordon W. | Transportation Research Record | 1996


    Congestion-Based Peak Spreading Model

    Allen, W. G. / Schultz, G. W. / National Research Council; Transportation Research Board | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1996