This paper provides a generic approach to estimating the probability that an industrial site of specific dimensions and location will be struck by an aircraft. This generic method might be helpful to those charged with siting industrial complexes and facilities near airports and near airline flight paths. Coordinates of a proposed facility are parametrically selected relative to fixed, assumed locations of (a) Victor airways, (b) general aviation airports, (c) air carrier airports, (d) military installations, and (e) other areas of air activity, such as crop dusting fields. The probability that an aircraft or missile will impact the target area is the sum of the individual probabilities that an aircraft or a missile originating from a particular source will impact the target depend on (a) purpose or category of flight, (b) mode of flight, (c) effective target area, (d) relative location of facility target area and air activity, (e) number of operations, (f) mode of impact, (g) pilot experience, (h) weather conditions, (i) time of day, (j) air traffic density, etc. We discuss how to estimate the influence that each of these parameters has on the value of the impact probability. Keywords: Industrial plants; Site selection; Aviation accidents/crashes. (EDC)


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