A sample of approximately 140,000 records of licensed California drivers containing information on age, gender, and driving record variables was examined. The goal of this paper was to assess the accuracy of predicting future accident risk using various combinations of demographic and prior driving record variables as predictors in 17 regression models. It was concluded that if the goal of driver record adjudication systems is to identify and apply sanctions to high-risk drivers in order to intervene before this risk is realized, then the results presented in this report in this report support the current point-count strategy which attempts to optimize the identification of drivers having a high probability of subsequent accident involvement.
Strategies for Estimating Driver Accident Risk in Relation to California's Negligent-Operator Point System
1999
78 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
Transportation Safety , Road Transportation , Transportation , California , Driver records , Accident forecasting , Regression analysis , Accident prediction , Accident risks , Demography , Highway safety , Accident rates , High risk drivers , Driver improvement , Safety programs , Traffic law violation forecasting , Models , Accident proneness , Motor vehicle accidents , Point systems , Negligent-operator point system