This paper solves a targeting problem exactly and compares the exact solution with several reasonable expected-value approaches in order to gauge their accuracy. The scenario consists of air-to-surface missiles fired simultaneously at a ship formation defended with point defenses. The problem is to find the probability that a given ship will survive the raid. Each ship is present with a given probability and possesses a targeting 'weight' determining the likelihood that it will be selected for targeting among the other ships present. The method can be extended to further layers of defense under certain conditions. Each solution is presented in 2 forms: a finite sum and a definite integral, each being easier to handle than the other under certain conditions. Examples are given. One important conclusion is the spectacular breakdown of reasonable expected-value approaches. (Author)
A Targeting Problem Exact versus Expected-Value Approaches
1980
31 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
Missile Trajectories & Reentry Dynamics , Air & Space-Launched Missiles , Passive Defense Systems , Targeting , Air to surface missiles , Ship defense systems , Weighting functions , Hit probabilities , Point defense , Accuracy , Antiship missiles , Approximation(Mathematics) , Lethality , Laplace transformation , Likelihood functions , Expected value models
FCSTP with possibility and expected value approaches in hybrid uncertain environments
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