One of the most critical gaps in the management of highway safety is the lack of a reliable method for estimating the safety performance of an existing or planned roadway. Accident record systems have been developed and maintained by highway agencies to monitor the safety performance of their roadways, but these provide historical or retrospective data. Effective management requires a prospective viewpoint. Highway engineers need to know not what the safety performance of a roadway was in the recent or distant past, but what it is now and what it is likely to be in the future if particular proposed actions are taken. In the past, when current or future safety performance estimates for a roadway were needed, they have been developed by one of four approaches: averages from historical accident data, predictions from statistical models based on regression analysis, results of before-after studies, and expert judgements made by experienced engineers. Each of these methods, used alone, has significant weaknesses which are described. A new approach combining elements of each of these methods into an accident prediction algorithm is then described. This new accident prediction algorithm, developed specifically for application to rural two-lane highways, is the subject of this report.
Prediction of the Expected Safety Performance of Rural Two-Lane Highways
2000
202 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
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