The report explores trends in the volume of oceanborne trade, trends in the development of ship technology, and trends in the growth of the world fleets. Based on these trends, and on an examination of the economic factors that serve as the catalysts for technological advance, projections are made relative to trade, technology, and fleet composition for periods 5, 15, 35, and 75 years into the future. Trade forecasts are provided separately for total world oceanborne trade and for U. S. trade, with the U. S. trade forecasts broken down by coastal regions. Trends in ship size and in fleet composition are examined. Based on projections of demand, trends in ship productivity, and considerations of the economics of ship operation, forecasts of world fleet composition are presented. The survey of potential technological development concludes that virtually all oceanborne shipping will continue to move on conventional monohull displacement ships, at least until the end of this century. Speeds will go up only gradually as refinements to existing propulsion technology and hull design enable modest improvements in efficiency. Emphasis will be on improvement in productivity based on reduced port time and treatment of the ship as part of an integrated transportation system. Potential policy implications of the technological and fleet forecasts are explored briefly. (Author)
Oceanborne Shipping: Demand and Technology Forecast. Part 1
1968
307 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
SHIPPING - Market Analyses - ASIS Report, Japan - World shipbuilding demand forecast
Online Contents | 1998
A Forecast of 1970-1985 World Shipping
NTIS | 1971
|