The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. A method is developed in this paper to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and Monte Carlo validation are presented.
Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight
1996
18 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
Transportation Safety , Air Transportation , Free flight , Air traffic control , Coordinate transformations , Monte carlo method , Aircraft safety , Covariance , Flight optimization , Trajectories , Probability density functions , Separation , Spacing , Performance prediction , Error analysis , Two dimensional models , Three dimensional models , Aircraft maneuvers
Conflict probability estimation for free flight
AIAA | 1997
|Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight
NTRS | 1996
|Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight
Online Contents | 1997
|Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight
British Library Conference Proceedings | 1997
|Conflict Probability for Free Flight
AIAA | 1997
|