The study presents the methodology and system architecture of an integrated urban road network travel time prediction framework based on low-frequency probe vehicle data. Intended applications include real-time network traffic management, vehicle routing and information provision. The framework integrates methods for receiving a stream of probe vehicle data, map matching and path inference, link travel time estimation, calibration of prediction model parameters and network travel time prediction in real time. The system design satisfies three crucial aspects: computational efficiency of prediction, internal consistency between components and robustness against noisy and missing data. Prediction is based on a multivariate hybrid method of probabilistic principal component analysis, which captures global correlation patterns between links and time intervals, and local smoothing, which considers local correlations among neighbouring links. Computational experiments for the road network of Stockholm, Sweden and probe data from taxis show that the system provides high accuracy for both peak and off-peak traffic conditions. The computational efficiency of the framework makes it capable of real-time prediction for large-scale networks. For links with large speed variations between days, prediction significantly outperforms the historical mean. Furthermore, prediction is reliable also for links with high proportions of missing data.
Integrated framework for real-time urban network travel time prediction on sparse probe data
IET Intelligent Transport Systems ; 12 , 1 ; 66-74
2017-11-14
9 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
probe vehicle data , data handling , information provision , probability , sparse probe data , integrated urban road network travel time prediction , global correlation patterns , prediction model parameter calibration , Stockholm , vehicle routing , link travel time estimation , map matching , principal component analysis , real-time network traffic management , time intervals , noisy data , real-time urban network travel time prediction , probabilistic principal component analysis , intelligent transportation systems , multivariate hybrid method , Sweden , low-frequency probe vehicle data , missing data , path inference , local smoothing
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