The Government Accountability Office’s (GAO) 20th annual assessment of the Department of Defense’s (DoD) weapon programs states "they found over half of the Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) reviewed totaling more than $1,800B (BY 21) had significant schedule delays" of eight months on average, and almost 40% with over twelve-month delays to deliver promised capability to the warfighter. In addition, there has been a surge in Middle-Tier Acquisition (MTA) programs in recent years with the aim of delivering capabilities faster totaling more than $30B (BY 21). Unfortunately, there have been schedule delays, calling into question the ability of this program pathway to deliver capability more rapidly. While the COVID-19 pandemic caused some delays, root causes, observed by the GAO, was a correlation between the lack of obtaining adequate knowledge at key points in the program lifecycle and poor performance impacting both cost and schedule. This is counter to the continuing DoD theme (from the 19th annual report) of "deliver solutions and capability to the end user in a timely manner".This paper investigates methods and techniques to support realistic schedule development early in the program life cycle to avoid historical delays and poor performance of those reported programs. Then, we discuss advanced methods and tools to demonstrate how future program schedule planning can be done when knowledge or technology is not fully matured prior to program start. This valuable insight can support the long DoD planning and budgeting cycles to assure timely capability fielding to meet urgent mission needs.The GAO studied and reported on troublesome programs for over two decades. Their recommendations were aimed at improving program outcomes. A key initiative was implementing the knowledge point framework (KPF), which they found highly beneficial to improving program outcomes. Still falling short, they investigated the private sector businesses and processes that could be applied to government acquisitions.A recent GAO report on leading business practices evaluated activities, key principles and processes private companies are doing in the development cycle to quickly field innovative products efficiently. Then, they explored how some of the resulting key principles can be applied to Government programs.The work in this paper addresses two acquisition practices, the KPF – how to attain knowledge early; and Private sector leading practices and driving principles – to field innovative solutions in a timely and efficient manner that maximizes return on investment. Using the processes and procedures from this data, we show how they are implemented into schedule planning activities. They consider risk and uncertainty integration, prioritizing schedule with continuous reviews, and realistic assessment of schedule activities that meet program and mission needs. The result will be demonstrated with an example using the emerging toolset and repeatable processes.Future work will include implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques based on historical data. The goal is to provide relevant schedule recommendations based on this information. For example, AI can reach into the knowledge management system and, with ML, provide recommendations on task durations, network logic and recovery plans to meet objectives.
Managing Schedules in a Risk Resilient Framework
02.03.2024
8241500 byte
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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