Modern navigation typically measures vehicle speeds based on road segments, which may not accurately reflect actual traffic conditions, particularly on complex roads with merging or diverging lanes. On such complicated roads, traffic speeds vary among different paths taken by drivers, resulting in a mixture of traffic flows with distinct speeds within one road segment. Existing studies attempted to address this issue by computing speeds at the lane-level, while exhibiting limitations. As a solution, we propose a methodology for computing speeds at the path level. Our algorithm automatically analyzes a national-scale road network, identifying sub-graphs where the mixture of different traffic flows occurs and distinguishes their paths. Subsequently, we construct a path set whose element is a path representing single traffic flow. Then, we compute the average speed along these paths using real-time GPS traces. Finally, we applied our methodology to real-world navigation and conducted a fully online test. When predicting drivers' speed (in km/h) on the urban complex roads, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decreased by 52.09%, and the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 28.26% compared to the existing methods. Also, we assessed the accuracy of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) from drivers' origination to destination who traversed four complex roads in Seoul. The most notable finding emerged when drivers traversed an intersection located in a central downtown, where ETA MAE dropped by 18.56% and RMSE by 16.67%.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Accurate Estimated Time of Arrival Prediction Using Real-Time Path-Level Speed Computation


    Beteiligte:
    Kim, Pooreumoe (Autor:in) / Ham, Seung Woo (Autor:in) / Park, Jungsoo (Autor:in) / Kim, Jungmin (Autor:in)


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    24.09.2024


    Format / Umfang :

    8313711 byte





    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch



    Inferring Accurate Bus Trajectories from Noisy Estimated Arrival Time Records

    Meegahapola, Lakmal / Athaide, Noel / Jayarajah, Kasthuri et al. | IEEE | 2019


    Data-driven aircraft estimated time of arrival prediction

    Strottmann Kern, Christian / de Medeiros, Ivo Paixao / Yoneyama, Takashi | IEEE | 2015


    Target Tracking and Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) Prediction for Arrival Aircraft

    Roy, Kaushik / Levy, Benjamin / Tomlin, Claire | AIAA | 2006


    Multiple estimated times of arrival computation

    CHUNG HELEN / CHEN XIN / PEGUERO TIRSO et al. | Europäisches Patentamt | 2023

    Freier Zugriff

    Method and device for predicting estimated arrival time of flight path and automatic prediction system

    LI JIANBIN / LIU TAO / MEI GANG et al. | Europäisches Patentamt | 2021

    Freier Zugriff