Described is a system for predicting system trajectories toward critical transitions. The system transforms a set of multivariate time series of observables of a complex system into a set of symbolic multivariate time series. Then pair-wise time series of a transfer entropy (TE) measure are determined, wherein the TE measure quantifies the amount of information transfer from a source to a destination in the complex system. An associative transfer entropy (ATE) measure is determined which decomposes the pair-wise time series of TE to associative states of asymmetric, directional information flows, wherein the ATE measure is comprised of an ATE+ influence class and a ATE- influence class. The system estimates ATE+, TE, and ATE- trajectories over time, and at least one of the ATE+, TE, and ATE- trajectories is used to predict a critical transition in the complex system.
PREDICTING SYSTEM TRAJECTORIES TOWARD CRITICAL TRANSITIONS
VORHERSAGE VON SYSTEMTRAJEKTORIEN ZU KRITISCHEN ÜBERGÄNGEN
PRÉVISION DE TRAJECTOIRES DE SYSTÈME VERS DES TRANSITIONS CRITIQUES
2016-07-27
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
IPC: | G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / G01C Messen von Entfernungen, Höhen, Neigungen oder Richtungen , MEASURING DISTANCES, LEVELS OR BEARINGS / G05D SYSTEMS FOR CONTROLLING OR REGULATING NON-ELECTRIC VARIABLES , Systeme zum Steuern oder Regeln nichtelektrischer veränderlicher Größen / G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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