The invention discloses a container port cascade failure risk assessment method based on ship flow dynamic allocation. The method comprises the following steps: extracting a route from mass container ship AIS trajectory data and constructing a directed weighted marine transportation network; generating an alternative alternative port set for the interrupted port based on network topology features and a spatial neighbor effect, and determining three optimal alternative ports of the interrupted port by integrating port multi-source marine transportation big data; a port cascade failure risk modeling method is constructed on the basis of a linear Moter-Lai model hypothesis; three port cascade failure risk assessment indexes in a sea transportation scene are constructed, the influence degree after port interruption in a container sea transportation network is assessed, and a dynamic cascade failure risk diffusion process and mechanism are explored in combination with a geographical visualization method. According to the method, the existing knowledge system of global dynamic risk assessment of the container transportation system is enriched, and an insight with important practical significance is provided for container cascade failure risk management and countermeasure research.

    本发明公开了一种基于船舶流动态分配的集装箱港口级联失效风险评估方法,包括:从海量集装箱船AIS轨迹数据中提取航线并构建有向加权海运网络;基于网络拓扑特征和空间近邻效应为中断港口生成备选替代港口集合,通过整合包含港口多源海运大数据确定中断港口的3个最优替代港口;基于线性Motter‑Lai模型假设构建港口级联失效风险建模方法;构建海运场景下的3个港口级联失效风险评估指标,评估集装箱海运网络中港口中断后的影响程度,并结合地理可视化方法探究动态级联失效风险扩散过程和机制。本方法不仅丰富了全球集装箱运输系统动态风险评估的现有知识体系,对于集装箱级联失效风险管理和对策研究提供了具有重要实际意义的见解。


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    Titel :

    Container port cascade failure risk assessment method based on ship flow dynamic distribution


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    一种基于船舶流动态分配的集装箱港口级联失效风险评估方法


    Beteiligte:
    PENG PENG (Autor:in) / XU YANG (Autor:in) / LU FENG (Autor:in)

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    09.05.2025


    Medientyp :

    Patent


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Chinesisch


    Klassifikation :

    IPC:    G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung



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