The invention relates to a risk assessment method and system for safe navigation of a ship, and the method comprises the following steps: risk perception: obtaining the original data of the natural environment of a polar region, and carrying out the preprocessing; performing risk cognition: performing systematic analysis on risk influence factors of the navigation ship in the polar region water area by applying a system theory accident model and process, taking the risk influence factors as nodes, obtaining a transition rate between the nodes according to the preprocessed original data, and constructing a random Petri network model; risk control: sorting the nodes in the model according to the steady-state probability by using a Markov chain, and carrying out risk control processing on the nodes with low steady-state probability; and risk decision-making: generating an air route and a risk control scheme in the polar navigation water area. According to the method, the informatization technology is adopted to perceive risk factors to reveal polar region environment space features, the complex system safety theory is applied to research polar region water area ship navigation risks, and precise risk cognition is achieved by combining subjective and objective data fusion.
本发明涉及一种船舶安全通航的风险评估方法和系统,方法包括如下步骤:风险感知:获取极地自然环境原始数据,并进行预处理;风险认知:运用系统理论事故模型和过程对极地水域通航船舶的风险影响因素进行系统性分析,将风险影响因素作为节点,根据预处理后的原始数据得到节点之间的变迁速率,构建随机Petri网模型;风险控制:利用马尔科夫链对模型中的节点依照稳态概率进行排序,针对稳态概率低的节点进行风险控制处理;风险决策:生成极地通航水域中的航路和风险控制方案。本发明采用信息化技术感知风险要素揭示极地环境空间特征,运用复杂系统安全理论研究极地水域船舶通航风险,结合主、客观数据融合实现精准化风险认知。
Risk assessment method and system for safe navigation of ship
一种船舶安全通航的风险评估方法和系统
14.01.2025
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Chinesisch
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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