The invention relates to a variable coefficient grey model short-time traffic flow prediction method, which belongs to the technical field of traffic prediction and comprises the following steps: S1, establishing an initial traffic flow sequence based on traffic flow data to obtain a target traffic flow sequence; s2, preprocessing the original traffic flow sequence, namely calculating a first-order accumulation generation sequence, an n-order accumulation subtraction generation sequence and a mean value sequence; s3, establishing a high-order variable coefficient-based grey Euler short-term traffic flow prediction model EEGM (n, 1); constructing matrixes B and Y to obtain estimated values of model parameters; s4, optimizing by adopting a particle swarm algorithm, namely searching the optimal order of the model by using the particle swarm algorithm, and constructing the model according to the searched optimal order and the parameter value calculated by the least square method; and S5, calculating a simulation value of the EEGM (n, 1) model through a time response function, and calculating a reduction value of the EEGM (n, 1) model through a cumulative reduction formula.

    本发明涉及一种变系数灰色模型短时交通流预测方法,属于交通预测技术领域,包括以下步骤:S1:基于交通流数据建立初始交通流序列,得到目标交通流量序列;S2:对原始交通流序列进行预处理,即计算一阶累加生成序列,n阶累减生成序列以及均值序列;S3:建立基于高阶变系数灰色欧拉短时交通流预测模型EEGM(n,1);并构造矩阵B和Y,得到模型参数的估计值;S4:采用粒子群算法寻优,即用粒子群算法寻找模型的最优阶数,并根据找寻到的最优阶数和最小二乘法计算的参数值构建模型;S5:通过时间响应函数计算EEGM(n,1)模型的模拟值,通过累减还原式计算其还原值。


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    Titel :

    Variable coefficient grey model short-term traffic flow prediction method


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    一种变系数灰色模型短时交通流预测方法


    Beteiligte:
    DUAN HUIMING (Autor:in) / SONG YUXIN (Autor:in) / XIE DERONG (Autor:in) / CHENG YUNLONG (Autor:in) / ZHOU QIQI (Autor:in) / HE CHENGLIN (Autor:in)

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2024-05-28


    Medientyp :

    Patent


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Chinesisch


    Klassifikation :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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