The invention belongs to the technical field of traffic flow prediction, and particularly relates to a ship traffic flow prediction method based on target monitoring data, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining time sequence data for processing, and transmitting the time sequence data to a preprocessing module; judging and sending the time sequence data meeting a preset condition to a correlation analysis module; carrying out differential processing on the inconsistent data, and then carrying out preprocessing again; the correlation analysis module obtains an autocorrelation coefficient and a partial correlation coefficient of the data, and selects a corresponding model structure as a modeling coefficient structure through the model construction module; obtaining model parameters, establishing a corresponding model, sending the established model to a model verification module, judging whether the model meets a precision requirement or not, and if not, re-determining a modeling coefficient structure and estimating the model parameters; and if yes, using the verified model, finally taking the time sequence data of the ship flow at the target area position as the input of the model, and outputting the model to obtain a predicted value of the ship flow.
本发明属于交通流量预测技术领域,具体涉及一种基于目标监测数据的船舶交通流量预测方法,包括以下步骤:获取时间序列数据进行处理,并发送至预处理模块;判断将符合预设条件的时间序列数据发送至相关性分析模块;将不符合的数据进行差分处理后,重新预处理;相关性分析模块获取数据的自相关系数和偏相关系数,通过模型构建模块选取相应的模型结构作为建模系数结构;并获取到模型参数建立对应的模型,将建立的模型发送至模型验证模块判断该模型是否满足精度要求,若不满足,则重新进行确定建模系数结构及模型参数估计;若满足则利用验证通过的模型,最终将采集目标区域位置船舶流量的时间序列数据作为模型的输入,模型输出得到船舶流量的预测值。
Ship traffic flow prediction method and system based on target monitoring data
一种基于目标监测数据的船舶交通流量预测方法及系统
2023-08-18
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Chinesisch
IPC: | G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung / G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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