The invention relates to a Copula-based travel time distribution prediction method and system, and the method comprises the steps: constructing the travel time edge distribution of a preorder road section and a postorder road section through the historical preorder road section-postorder road section travel time data, calibrating the parameters of a Copula function through the edge distribution, and predicting the travel time distribution of the preorder road section and the postorder road section. And establishing Copula-based front-and-back road section travel time joint distribution, taking the actual travel time experienced by a traveler as the input of a prediction model, and utilizing the Copula-based front-and-back road section travel time joint distribution to obtain the travel time condition probability distribution of the rear road section, so as to obtain the travel time condition probability distribution of the rear road section. Therefore, predicted travel time distribution of future subsequent road sections is provided for travelers. According to the method, the existing road section travel time information is fully utilized, the travel time distribution is dynamically predicted, richer travel time distribution information can be provided, and travelers are assisted to better plan routes and arrange the travel.

    本发明涉及一种基于Copula的行程时间分布预测方法及系统,其中方法包括:利用历史前序路段‑后序路段行程时间数据构建前序路段、后序路段的行程时间边缘分布,通过边缘分布标定Copula函数的参数,并以此建立基于Copula的前后序路段行程时间联合分布,以出行者在途已经历的实际行程时间为预测模型的输入,利用基于Copula的前后序路段行程时间联合分布,得到后序路段的行程时间条件概率分布,从而为出行者提供预测的未来后序路段的行程时间分布。本发明充分利用已有的路段行程时间信息,动态地预测行程时间分布,可提供更丰富的行程时间分布信息,协助出行者更好地规划路径及安排行程。


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    Titel :

    Copula-based travel time distribution prediction method and system


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    一种基于Copula的行程时间分布预测方法及系统


    Beteiligte:
    XU XIANGDONG (Autor:in) / CHEN RUIYA (Autor:in)

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2023-07-04


    Medientyp :

    Patent


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Chinesisch


    Klassifikation :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung




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