The invention discloses a road traffic accident form prediction method. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, collecting and processing road traffic accident data; 2, discretizing continuous independent variables in the traffic accident data by adopting a minimum description length criterion; 3, mining interaction among the independent variables by adopting an attribute selection method based on association rules in the field of data mining; 4, establishing a hybrid Logit model, and performing parameter estimation by adopting a maximum likelihood estimation method; and 5, based on the constructed hybrid Logit model, predicting the traffic accident form probability. In the continuous independent variable discretization process, information of predictive variables is fully utilized, the influence of the interaction among the variables on the accident form is mined, the information loss of discretized variables is reduced, the problem of wrong inference caused by neglect of the interaction among the variables is solved, the prediction precision of a traffic accident form prediction model is improved, and technical support is provided for improvement of a road traffic safety environment.

    本发明公开了一种道路交通事故形态预测方法,其步骤如下:1、采集和处理道路交通事故数据;2、采用最小描述长度准则对交通事故数据中的连续自变量进行离散化;3、采用数据挖掘领域中基于关联规则的属性选择方法,挖掘自变量间的交互作用;4、建立混合Logit模型,并采用极大似然估计法进行参数估计;5、基于构建的混合Logit模型,进行交通事故形态概率的预测。本发明在连续自变量离散过程中充分利用预测变量的信息并挖掘变量间交互作用对事故形态的影响,以降低被离散变量的信息损失,克服忽略变量间交互作用导致错误推论的问题,从而提高交通事故形态预测模型的预测精度,为道路交通安全环境的改善提供技术支持。


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    Titel :

    Road traffic accident form prediction method


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    一种道路交通事故形态预测方法


    Beteiligte:
    SHI QIN (Autor:in) / HU ZONGPIN (Autor:in) / CHEN YIKAI (Autor:in) / LUO RENJIA (Autor:in) / YU SHUJUN (Autor:in)

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2021-07-06


    Medientyp :

    Patent


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Chinesisch


    Klassifikation :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / B60W CONJOINT CONTROL OF VEHICLE SUB-UNITS OF DIFFERENT TYPE OR DIFFERENT FUNCTION , Gemeinsame Steuerung oder Regelung von Fahrzeug-Unteraggregaten verschiedenen Typs oder verschiedener Funktion / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES



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