Research highlights ► Parameters governing the fundamental diagram (speed–density relationship) are stochastic. This paper introduces the stochasticity of the fundamental diagram of traffic flow as stochastic parameters governing the sending and receiving functions of the cell transmission model (CTM). In addition, to enhance the future prediction the stochastic CTM (SCTM) also considers the stochasticity in travel demand. ► The SCTM can be formulated as a bilinear stochastic system in which the test with the empirical freeway data shows the consistency between the estimated mean and SD of the traffic densities by the SCTM and those from the empirical data. ► The test result also highlights the computational advantage of the SCTM over the application of Monte Carlo Simulation with CTM in terms of computational time and accuracy of estimated mean and SD of traffic densities.

    Abstract The paper proposes a first-order macroscopic stochastic dynamic traffic model, namely the stochastic cell transmission model (SCTM), to model traffic flow density on freeway segments with stochastic demand and supply. The SCTM consists of five operational modes corresponding to different congestion levels of the freeway segment. Each mode is formulated as a discrete time bilinear stochastic system. A set of probabilistic conditions is proposed to characterize the probability of occurrence of each mode. The overall effect of the five modes is estimated by the joint traffic density which is derived from the theory of finite mixture distribution. The SCTM captures not only the mean and standard deviation (SD) of density of the traffic flow, but also the propagation of SD over time and space. The SCTM is tested with a hypothetical freeway corridor simulation and an empirical study. The simulation results are compared against the means and SDs of traffic densities obtained from the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of the modified cell transmission model (MCTM). An approximately two-miles freeway segment of Interstate 210 West (I-210W) in Los Ageles, Southern California, is chosen for the empirical study. Traffic data is obtained from the Performance Measurement System (PeMS). The stochastic parameters of the SCTM are calibrated against the flow–density empirical data of I-210W. Both the SCTM and the MCS of the MCTM are tested. A discussion of the computational efficiency and the accuracy issues of the two methods is provided based on the empirical results. Both the numerical simulation results and the empirical results confirm that the SCTM is capable of accurately estimating the means and SDs of the freeway densities as compared to the MCS.


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    Titel :

    Stochastic cell transmission model (SCTM): A stochastic dynamic traffic model for traffic state surveillance and assignment


    Beteiligte:
    Sumalee, A. (Autor:in) / Zhong, R.X. (Autor:in) / Pan, T.L. (Autor:in) / Szeto, W.Y. (Autor:in)

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2010-09-24


    Format / Umfang :

    27 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch





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