AbstractA methodology for predicting solar particle event doses using Bayesian inference is being developed. As part of this development, we have tested criteria for categorization of new solar particle events (SPE) using calculated asymptotic doses and dose rates for the 22 SPEs that occurred in 2001. In 9 out of 22 events, our criteria for categorization would have over-predicted the range of asymptotic doses in which the tested events would have fallen. In two cases, our methodology under-predicted the dose range in which the event would have fallen. In order to better predict a new event's group category and thus, to better restrict the Bayesian inference predictive model parameter space, we have reexamined our dose rate criteria for categorization of new events. We report the updating of the grouping criteria using data from the 22 SPEs of 2001, as well as five additional SPEs. Using the revised grouping criteria, we present an analysis of group categorization prediction results for the first ten SPEs of 2002.


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    Titel :

    Prediction of solar particle event proton doses using early dose rate measurements


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Acta Astronautica ; 56 , 9-12 ; 961-968


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2005-01-01


    Format / Umfang :

    8 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch



    Prediction of solar particle event proton doses using early dose rate measurements

    Neal, J. S. / Townsend, L. W. / International Academy of Astronautics | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2005


    Prediction of solar particle event proton doses using early dose rate measurements

    Neal, J. S. / Townsend, L. W. / International Academy of Astronautics | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2005



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