Highlights ► A platoon-based traffic flow model estimating the breakdown probability with respect to traffic flow rate is developed. ► It assumes traffic breakdown comprises two stochastic processes: platoon formation and speed transition. ► Desired speed distribution is a key input of this model, which is inversely estimated from the observation of platoons. ► Increasing the variance and decreasing the mean of desired speed distribution will increase breakdown probability. ► Insights from this work inform management strategies controlling heterogeneity in driving behavior.
Abstract This study investigates the mechanism of traffic breakdown and establishes a traffic flow model that precisely simulates the stochastic and dynamic processes of traffic flow at a bottleneck. The proposed model contains two models of stochastic processes associated with traffic flow dynamics: a model of platoon formation behind a bottleneck and a model of speed transitions within a platoon. After these proposed models are validated, they are applied to a simple one-way, one-lane expressway section containing a bottleneck, and the stochastic nature of traffic breakdown is demonstrated through theoretical exercises.
Platoon-based traffic flow model for estimating breakdown probability at single-lane expressway bottlenecks
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological ; 45 , 9 ; 1314-1330
2011-01-01
17 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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