AbstractThis paper expands the fields of application of combined Bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) and Holt Winters methods to the air transportation industry, a novelty in literature, in order to obtain more accurate demand forecasts. The methodology involves decomposing the time series into three adding components: trend, seasonal and remainder. New series are generated by resampling the Remainder component and adding back the trend and seasonal ones. The Holt Winters method is used to modelling each time series and the final forecast is obtained by aggregating the forecasts set. The approach is tested using data series from 14 countries and the results are compared with five methodology benchmarks (SARIMA, Holt Winters, ETS, Bagged.BLD.MBB.ETS and Seasonal Naive) using Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE). The empirical results obtained with Bagging Holt Winters methods consistently outperform the benchmarks by providing forecasts that are more accurate.

    HighlightsBagging Holt Winters method is used to forecast the air transportation demand.Bagging Holt Winters method is a novelty in the field of air transportation.Both additive and multiplicative seasonality are considered.Comparison to SARIMA, Holt Winters, ETS, Bagged.BLD.MBB.ETS and Seasonal Naïve.The method outperformed all benchmark: sMAPE was reduced in 14 country time series.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Air transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods



    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2016-12-05


    Format / Umfang :

    8 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch



    Short-term Forecast Model of Vehicles Volume Based on ARIMA Seasonal Model and Holt-Winters

    Wang Zhi-Hui / Lu Chen-Yang / Pu Bin et al. | DOAJ | 2017

    Freier Zugriff

    Prediction Scheme of Railway Passenger Flow Based on Multiplicative Holt-Winters Model

    Wei, Zhuo Min ;Song, Hong Chao | Trans Tech Publications | 2013




    Winters IJsland blijkt stofnest

    Online Contents | 2004