Highlights We show the travel time reliability ratio is related to conditional value at risk. We develop a nonparametric method to evaluate the travel time reliability ratio. We demonstrate the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

    Abstract The reliability of travel time significantly affects individual travelers’ decision-making behaviour and hence in turn influences the overall travel demand at the macroscopic level. The travel time reliability ratio (TTRR), defined to be the ratio of the value of travel time variability to the value of travel time, is an important metric for measuring such reliability. In this paper, we first show that the TTRR is closely related to a widely used risk measure in financial economics, i.e. conditional value at risk (CVaR). Then based on the connection between the TTRR and CVaR, we develop a nonparametric approach to estimate the TTRR. In the literature, to compute the TTRR, it usually needs to assume a specific statistical distribution for the travel time. This can produce a misleading result when this assumption goes awry due to the potential complexity of travel time distributions. Based on the relationship between the TTRR and CVaR, this paper proposes a new nonparametric method, i.e. the kernel density estimation method, to overcome this problem. We show that this new nonparametric method is robust in terms that it does not depend on any assumptions about the shape of the travel time distribution. The simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods and substantially improves the numerical accuracy. Finally, a practical example is used to illustrate the proposed method.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Measuring travel time reliability and risk: A nonparametric approach


    Beteiligte:
    Li, Baibing (Autor:in)


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2019-10-25


    Format / Umfang :

    20 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




    Measuring and Defining Freeway Travel Time Reliability

    Tu, H. / van Lint, H. / van Zuylen, H. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2006


    Travel Time Reliability with Risk-Sensitive Travelers

    Chen, A. / Ji, Z. / Recker, W. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2002


    Travel Time Reliability with Risk-Sensitive Travelers

    Chen, Anthony / Ji, Zhaowang / Recker, Will | Transportation Research Record | 2002


    Travel Time Reliability with Risk-Sensitive Travelers

    Chen, Anthony | Online Contents | 2002