Highlights A deep learning strategy (WGAN-GP) is developed to address the data imbalance issue. The combination performances of sampling methods and prediction models are compared. XGBoost with WGAN-GP approach is a preferable crash injury severity prediction model. The interpretability of crash injury severity model is improved by SHAP.

    Abstract For each road crash event, it is necessary to predict its injury severity. However, predicting crash injury severity with the imbalanced data frequently results in ineffective classifier. Due to the rarity of severe injuries in road traffic crashes, the crash data is extremely imbalanced among injury severity classes, making it challenging to the training of prediction models. To achieve interclass balance, it is possible to generate certain minority class samples using data augmentation techniques. Aiming to address the imbalance issue of crash injury severity data, this study applies a novel deep learning method, the Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty (WGAN-GP), to investigate a massive amount of crash data, which can generate synthetic injury severity data linked to traffic crashes to rebalance the dataset. To evaluate the effectiveness of the WGAN-GP model, we systematically compare performances of various commonly-used sampling techniques (random under-sampling, random over-sampling, synthetic minority over-sampling technique and adaptive synthetic sampling) with respect to dataset balance and crash injury severity prediction. After rebalancing the dataset, this study categorizes the crash injury severity using logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, random forest, AdaBoost and XGBoost. The AUC, specificity and sensitivity are employed as evaluation indicators to compare the prediction performances. Results demonstrate that sampling techniques can considerably improve the prediction performance of minority classes in an imbalanced dataset, and the combination of XGBoost and WGAN-GP performs best with an AUC of 0.794 and a sensitivity of 0.698. Finally, the interpretability of the model is improved by the explainable machine learning technique SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation), allowing for a deeper understanding of the effects of each variable on crash injury severity. Findings of this study shed light on the prediction of crash injury severity with data imbalance using data-driven approaches.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Crash injury severity prediction considering data imbalance: A Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty approach


    Beteiligte:
    Li, Ye (Autor:in) / Yang, Zhanhao (Autor:in) / Xing, Lu (Autor:in) / Yuan, Chen (Autor:in) / Liu, Fei (Autor:in) / Wu, Dan (Autor:in) / Yang, Haifei (Autor:in)


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2023-08-24




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch