Abstract In times of great uncertainty for the airline industry, travelers are in search of reliable itineraries now more than ever. With condensed airline schedules and less options, air travelers must rely on making flight connections and manage layover times to arrive at their final destination on time. In an era with readily available information, passengers expect accurate and transparent reliability information to help improve decision making for multi-leg itineraries. However, often for reliability in air travel, this information is incomplete or not useful. In this paper we utilize historical probability distributions of flight arrival and departure times using publicly available data to give an intuitive and predictive flight itinerary reliability metric. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected air-travel in the US and this uncertainty is still being felt with cancellations and delays due to staff shortages and reduced demand. Therefore, we extend the stochastic network model from our previous research to air travel during COVID-19 to see the effects on flight reliability. Using this model, we conduct computational experiments to evaluate air travel through multiple reliability metrics. We show that during periods of high uncertainty, predictive historical distributions of flight data considering recency and seasonal effects are less accurate given many cancellations and a reduced flight schedule.

    Highlights Passenger flight reliability increased during the pandemic due to open schedules. Distribution of flight delays and reliability vastly changed over the last 3 years. Tradeoff of itinerary travel time and reliability prevalent during pandemic. Flight delay reliability prediction accuracy decreased in times of high uncertainty.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Flight reliability during periods of high uncertainty


    Beteiligte:


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2022-10-19




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




    Guidelines for Flight Planning during Periods of High Ozone Occurrence

    A. D. Belmont / R. W. Wilcox / G. D. Nastrom et al. | NTIS | 1978


    Human reserve evaluation problems during pre- and post space flight periods

    Baranov, V.M. / Baranov, M.V. / Pashchenko, A.V. et al. | AIAA | 2006



    Crew reliability during simulated space flight.

    Flaherty, T. M. / Grodsky, M. A. / Moore, H. G. | NTRS | 1966