Abstract This paper examines the causal relationship between air transport and economic growth in the South Asian context. Using panel data over a period of 42years (1973–2014), we apply Pedroni/Johansen cointegration test methods, followed by Granger long-run and Wald short-run causality tests. To allow for spatial heterogeneity we then apply Time Series Cross Section (TSCS) Granger causality tests for each of the eight analysed countries separately. Our results confirm a long-run uni-directional Granger causality which runs from GDP to air passenger traffic and also to air freight volumes. Contrary to the existing literature we do not find a long-run bi-directional causality which confirms that spatial dimensions and context matter (i.e. low income and large populations). The absence of short-run causality and the identified time lags of 3–4years should guide aviation firms and policy makers in the preparation of necessary infrastructure required to support the strong air transport growth potential.
Highlights We examine causal relationships between aviation and economic growth in South Asia. Our results show long-run uni-directional causality running from GDP to air transport. There appears to be a 3–4year time lag on both air passenger and freight growth. Absence of bi-directional and short run-causality shows that spatial dimensions and context matter. Country specific Time Series Cross Section (TSCS) tests confirm our causality results.
The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia
Journal of Transport Geography ; 56 ; 120-127
2016-09-10
8 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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