HighlightsA “big-picture view” of the future development of car-sharing (CS) services.Applying Bayesian truth serum, an expert elicitation and aggregation technique.Energy price and vehicle price has no significant impact on the future adoption of CS.A more knowledgeable expert is more pessimistic about the CS prevalence in 2016.A more knowledgeable expert is more optimistic about the CS prevalence in 2030.
AbstractThis paper presents a “big-picture view” for policymakers and related stakeholders regarding the future development of car-sharing services. Car-sharing has the potential to significantly disrupt the personal mobility market. Thus, understanding their market penetration and implications is urgently needed. Previous studies in this domain have predominantly focused on the views, opinions, and preferences of consumers. In this study, we complement the current demand modelling research on car-sharing by applying an expert elicitation and aggregation technique that relies on transport experts’ opinions to investigate the role of car-sharing in the future. Specifically, based on the opinions of mobility suppliers, this research elicits experts’ judgment from across government, industry, and academia to gain insights into the future of car-sharing markets in four countries – Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. The analysis reveals that, from a mobility supplier’s perspective, energy and vehicle prices will not have a statistically significant impact on the future adoption of car-sharing. The results also show that the more knowledgeable an expert is, the more pessimistic they are about the market penetration of car-sharing in 2016, and the more optimistic they are about the prevalence of car-sharing in 2030.
Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think
Tramsportation Research, Part C: Emerging Technologies ; 84 ; 158-177
2017-08-26
20 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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