Highlights A spatiotemporal risk prediction of wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVCs) is presented. A Bavarian dataset of around 731,000 accidents over a period of 10 years (2010–2019) was used. Heterogenous datasets of impact factors are pre-processed using GIS. Different machine learning (ML) approaches are applied - random forest, feedforward neural networks, and support vector machine classifier to predict the risk of WVCs. ML algorithms provide high risk prediction quality of over 86% (double-weighted sensitivity and single-weighted specificity rate). Spatial transferability and temporal forecast of WVC prediction was verified.
Abstract Introduction: The technology in the automotive industry is becoming increasingly safer in the age of automated driving, but the number of accidents is still high, especially in wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVCs). To better avoid these accidents, patterns involved in these accidents must be detected. Method: This paper presents a spatiotemporal risk prediction of WVCs, including various road and environmental characteristics. A process of data preparation using GIS automated by Python scripts was developed to enable a spatiotemporal link of diverse features for the subsequent predictive data analysis. Different machine learning (ML) approaches were applied- random forest (RF), feedforward neural networks (FNN), and support vector machine classifier (SVM) - including automated ML to predict the risk of WVCs. Therefore, a dataset of approximately 731,000 accidents reported to the police in Bavaria over a period of 10 years (2010–2019) was used. In addition, non-accidents were randomly generated in Python over time and space for the supervised ML processes. As the actual risk probability for WVCs and non-WVCs is not entirely known, the impact of different training ratios between accidents and non-accidents was tested on the risk prediction quality (RPQ) (25%, 50%, 75%, 90% WVCs) of the double-weighted sensitivity and single-weighted specificity rate. Results: The test yielded high mean values of RPQ as an indicator for a suitable WVC prediction. Both RF (86.6%) and FNN (86.7%) were identified as suitable choices for WVC risk prediction in terms of RPQ. The SVM yielded a lower prediction quality, even though acceptable results could be achieved within a shorter runtime. Practical Applications: Spatial transferability was verified since the algorithm was trained on the dataset of Bavaria (excluding Upper Bavaria) and successfully tested in Upper Bavaria. WVC forecasts were also proven through training with datasets from 2010-2017 and in prediction for 2018 and 2019.
A spatiotemporal risk prediction of wildlife-vehicle collisions using machine learning for dynamic warnings
Journal of Safety Research ; 83 ; 269-281
2022-09-01
13 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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