In this paper, railway passenger flows are analyzed and a suitable modeling method proposed. Based on historical data composed from monthly passenger counts realized on Serbian railway network it is concluded that the time series has a strong autocorrelation of seasonal characteristics. In order to deal with seasonal periodicity, Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is applied for fitting and forecasting the time series that spans over the January 2004 – June 2014 periods. Experimental results show good prediction performances. Therefore, developed SARIMA model can be considered for forecasting of monthly passenger flows on Serbian railways.


    Zugriff

    Download


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    SARIMA MODELLING APPROACH FOR RAILWAY PASSENGER FLOW FORECASTING


    Beteiligte:


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2018




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Unbekannt




    Railway passenger demand forecasting

    Smith, Tim / Faber, Oscar | IuD Bahn | 1998


    SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry

    Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo / Nieto, María Rosa | Elsevier | 2020


    SARIMA damp trend grey forecasting model for airline industry

    Carmona-Benítez, Rafael Bernardo / Nieto, María Rosa | Elsevier | 2019



    Multivariate Traffic Forecasting Technique Using Cell Transmission Model and SARIMA Model

    Szeto, W.Y. / Ghosh, B. / Basu, B. et al. | British Library Online Contents | 2009