Exploring the degree to which bus stop times are affected by rainfall is necessary for a reasonable formulation of bus-scheduling management schemes under rainy conditions. Although numerous mathematical models have been proposed, the predictive accuracy of existing models is insufficient for the precise formulation of bus policies. This study considered linear bus stops in Shenyang as research targets, and based on field survey data, we analysed the bus dwell time and its influencing factors under varying degrees of rainfall. The Pearson correlation analysis method and SPSS software were used to reveal the degree of influence of parameters, such as the number of passengers boarding and alighting buses, rainfall level, number of berthing spaces, load rate and presence of signalised intersections, on the bus stop time under rainfall conditions. Support vector machine, k-nearest neighbour and backpropagation (BP) prediction models were established, and the BP neural network model, having the best prediction effect, was optimised using a genetic algorithm (GA). The constructed GA-BP prediction model was more realistic than the BP prediction model and can be used to predict bus dwell times under rainfall conditions. The study findings will facilitate bus punctuality and improve customer appeal for bus services.


    Zugriff

    Download


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of Bus Dwell Time Under Rainfall Conditions


    Beteiligte:
    Baoyun SUN (Autor:in) / Yaping YANG (Autor:in) / Lei DONG (Autor:in) / Honglin LU (Autor:in) / Zimin WANG (Autor:in)


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    2025




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Unbekannt





    Reducing Dwell Time Through Gradient Prediction

    Aronian, A. / Air Brake Association | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2012


    Analysis and prediction of bus stop loss time under rainfall conditions

    Yang, Yaping / Sun, Baoyun / Ma, Lin | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2023


    Hierarchical Bayesian Framework for Bus Dwell Time Prediction

    Isukapati, Isaac K. / Igoe, Conor / Bronstein, Eli et al. | IEEE | 2021


    Subway station dwell time prediction and user-induced delay

    Volovski, Matthew / Ieronymaki, Evangelia S. / Cao, Cara et al. | Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2021