Bus-arrival-time information service is a key component of an Advanced Public Transportation System (APTS). Instantaneous and accurate prediction of bus-arrival-time can improve the quality of transit service. With the input of tested historical bus travel time, a combined bus-arrival-time prediction model is promoted with a self adaptive exponential smoothing algorithm to predict interzone-section travel time and a statistical algorithm for multi-section travel time prediction. An experiment was conducted to compare the performance between the multi-section travel time (MSTT) based model and the sum of multi section travel time (STT) based model, with measures of mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The prediction results show that the MSTT based model outperformed the historical multi STT based model in terms of accuracy, reliability and precision.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Historical Travel Time Based Bus-Arrival-Time Prediction Model


    Beteiligte:
    Chen, Guojun (Autor:in) / Yang, Xiaoguang (Autor:in) / Zhang, Dong (Autor:in) / Teng, Jing (Autor:in)

    Kongress:

    11th International Conference of Chinese Transportation Professionals (ICCTP) ; 2011 ; Nanjing, China


    Erschienen in:

    ICCTP 2011 ; 1493-1504


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    26.07.2011




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




    Historical data based real time prediction of vehicle arrival time

    Maiti, Santa / Pal, Arpan / Pal, Arindam et al. | IEEE | 2014


    Modeling Bus Travel Delay and Travel Time for Improved Arrival Prediction

    Kotagiri, Yashaswi / Pulugurtha, Srinivas S. | ASCE | 2016



    ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION DEVICE, ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION SYSTEM, AND PROGRAM

    OKUDE MARIKO / NAGAI TOORU | Europäisches Patentamt | 2016

    Freier Zugriff

    ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION DEVICE AND ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION DEVICE SYSTEM

    ARAKI KATSUNORI | Europäisches Patentamt | 2017

    Freier Zugriff