Planning and financing decisions for new highway capacity investments were primarily driven by three distinct but interrelated areas: vehicle miles travelled (VMT), traffic volume, existing congestion and forecasts. These measures have provided the soundness for long term borrowing to finance the new highway capacity. A sea change in mobility is altering planning, revenues, and financing and could seriously undermine a state’s/city’s ability to support debt for new capacity and how our transportation plans address congestion.
Highway congestion is primarily driven by three factors1: demand that exceeds roadway capacity at specific times or events; crashes; driver behavior of changing lanes, inconsistent speeds, merging and exiting (and all driver misjudgments, errors, and impaired/distracted driving); and, land use patterns.
Today four significant changes are occurring that will dramatically address these congestion factors and reduce highway congestion. The four changes involve economics, demographics, technology and transportation management, and land use. These changes are creating uncertainties and increased risk for public and private decision makers, particularly for addressing future congestion and revenue forecasts. The paper will look at these changes and their implications to decision making. The industry’s heavy reliance reliance on VMT has skewed decision making.
The changes will require a new mobility matrix. The critical transportation decision issue should not be VMT, but how people move from point to point efficiently and effectively; where do they want to go and why, and how they choose their mobility choices2. The new matrix will raise serious questions about the use of tolls as viable financing ways of funding new capacity. Transportation is a great deal more than traffic. Traffic is two-dimensional and wheeled-vehicle based. Even traffic is changing, with the rise of autonomous vehicles.
For many decades the history of highway revenues forecasts reflected steady growth in VMT, fuel use, car and truck registrations etc. as the primary sources for revenues. While the rates of growth varied by category and changed over time, these changes were not dramatic and certainly did not imply structural changes in the use of our transport system.
Planning and financing decisions for addressing congestion and new highway capacity investments were primarily driven by vehicle miles travelled (VMT), traffic volume, existing congestion and traffic forecasts.
However, over the past decade there has been a steady decline in key data sets critical toforecasting traffic and revenues: notably, VMT per capita and an overall decline in automobile VMT and the other measures for highway revenues, planning and decision making. This is correlated with revenues, both in terms of fuel use and registrations.
Starting in 2004 traffic and revenue forecasting were witnessing a serious, 9%, decline in VMT. This was unprecedented as VMT growth was positive and strong for decades with the exception of 1980. Until May 2014, the federal VMT forecasts were built upon the continued growth of the past and justified the recent declines of stagnant VMT growth on a faltering US/world economy, harking back the 1980 decline because of the recession. The May 2014 FHWA Forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Report3 cut the previous forecast growth light-duty vehicle travel4 between 24 and 44 percent and stating a “forecast showing the 30 year forecast growth rate in total VMT is only slightly above the 0.67% annual growth projected for light-duty vehicle travel through 2042 “5. Washington state’s “REVENUE AND RIDERSHIP PROJECTIONS SEPTEMBER 2014 FORECAST FISCAL YEARS 2015-2027”6 predicts similar VMT declines of 13% from 2013-2042. This forecast change has billions of dollars in less revenues for federal, state, and local transportation agencies; and requiring FHWA to provide clearer, more dependable, flexible and better forecasting tools for HRFM, and for potential new revenue sources to make up the gap in potential lost revenues from the slow growth in the May 2014 Report.
Not only are VMT forecasting declines affecting public transportation revenues, there is a growing shift in the relationship between auto travel and personal wealth (as measured by GDP). Garceau, Atkinson-Palombo and Garrick have done considerable work in this area and their work produced a critical fact:
“For decades in the U.S., VMT and GDP grew in a highly correlated manner that suggested intricate connectivity. In the mid-1990’s, GDP began growing faster than VMT, suggesting a weakening in driving’s contribution to economic growth and calling the nature of the relationship into question. As the U.S. economy recovers and driving rates stagnate or decline, the continued assumption of connectivity between driving and the economy may no longer be justified.”7
Together the decline in VMT and the divergence indicates that there are major shifts in factors affecting transportation and the economy that will have serious transportation revenue and forecasting impacts on our ability to finance and pay for new capacity, plan our transportation system and projects and address congestion.
Highway congestion is important to our conversation as excessive highway congestion is the primary justification to build and finance new highway capacity. Highway congestion is driven by three factors8: demand that exceeds roadway capacity at specific times or events; crashes; driver behavior of changing lanes, inconsistent speeds, merging and exiting (and all driver misjudgments, errors, and impaired/distracted driving); and, land use patterns.
Today four significant changes are occurring that will dramatically address these congestion factors and reduce highway congestion. These changes are creating uncertainties and increased risk for public and private decision makers in addressing congestion. Consequently, these changes also could result in serious revenue shortfalls for toll and congestion pricing revenue forecasts over the next 10–15 years. The four changes involve economics, demographics, technology and the slow but measurable public sector adoption of transportation management strategies and land use
The paper will look at these changes and their implications to forecasting challenges, reduced revenues, transportation planning and decision making criteria. The industry’s reliance on VMT has skewed decision making and the decline of VMT over the past 10 years and continues in 2013. State Dots have been slow in responding. Though there are some signs of an awakening and change of course. Among the early signs of awakening, is the the Caltrans 2012 household travel survey and USDOT’s 2013 Conditions and Performance Report.
The four areas to be discussed will require a new matrix for thinking about mobility. The critical transportation issues should not be VMT and traffic forecasting, but how people move from point to point efficiently and effectively; where do they want to go and why. A better physical indicator of mobility and our need to respond is people miles travelled and the purpose for which they travel, and how they choose their mobility choices9. This transportation focus provides transportation managers with vision to look anew at our transportation system and integrate the changes in demographics, the economy, technology discussed and the public’s efforts to manage their transportation system and land use. The new matrix will raise serious questions about the use of tolls as viable financing ways of funding new capacity. Transportation is a great deal more than traffic. Traffic is two-dimensional and wheeled-vehicle based. Even traffic is changing, with the rise of autonomous vehicles.
Traffic and Revenue Forecasting Problems and Its Impact on Debt Recovery and Highway Planning
Second International Conference on Public-Private Partnerships ; 2015 ; Austin, Texas
Advances in Public-Private Partnerships ; 334-345
11.07.2017
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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