This paper presents a traffic flow simulator (TFS) for short-term travel time forecasting. The forecasted travel time information is useful for the pre-trip planning of the drivers. The drivers can decide their departure time and mode choice based on the forecasted travel time. A case study has been carried out in the Hong Kong Island during the AM peak period. The stochastic deviation coefficient is introduced in the case study to simulate the variation of traffic flows within the peak hour period. The purposes of the case study are: 1) to show the applicability of the TFS for real road network; and 2) to illustrate the short-term forecasting of link travel times. The results of the case study show that the TFS can be applied for real network effectively. The TFS forecasted travel times and the observed travel times are compared. The findings show that the observed travel times fall in the 90% confidence interval of the TFS forecasted travel times.
Short-Term Travel Time Forecasting in Hong Kong
Eighth International Conference on Applications of Advanced Technologies in Transportation Engineering (AATTE) ; 2004 ; Beijing, China
13.05.2004
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Short-Term Travel Time Forecasting in Hong Kong
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